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美国楼市拐点已现?

美国楼市拐点已现?

TRISTAN BOVE 2022-02-10
最新调查发现,只有25%的购房人认为现在是购房的好时机,69%的受访者相信现在是卖房的好机会。

通常情况下,房地产市场要么是买方市场,要么是卖方市场。但自从2020年年中房地产行业重启以来,它已经完全变成了卖方市场。

越来越多潜在购房人认为市场已经无药可救,现在根本不值得出手。

美国联邦政府投资的住宅抵押贷款公司房利美(Fannie Mae)最新调查发现,只有25%的购房人认为现在是购房的好时机,69%的受访者相信现在是卖房的好机会。

作为一项月度和季度研究的一部分,该项调查在1月三周内电话采访了约1,000人。调查发现,购房者的乐观情绪处在自2020年5月以来的最低水平,但当时美国还没有取消封锁措施,没有人知道市场的发展方向。

现在,美国房地产市场对于购房者而言就是一场噩梦。新房需求创历史新高,但新房库存量却是历史最低水平。出售新房的时间,比一年前缩短了近10天。

这些令人讨厌的状况导致房地产市场出现了许多离奇的现象,例如三分之二购房人没有看房就直接出手,或者四分之一潜在购房人为了购买自己梦寐以求的住房愿意超支10万美元。

年轻人对于房地产市场供应紧张的感受最为明显。中等收入者可负担的住房供应紧张和激烈的竞争,对年轻人造成了严重影响。如今的房地产市场几乎没有经济实惠的选择,因此现在成为购房主力的千禧一代开始严重超支。

房利美调查发现,年轻受访者认为现在不宜买房的比例比一般受访者高约40%,只有15%年龄在18至34岁的受访者认为现在是买房的好时机。

房利美高级副总裁兼首席经济学家道格·邓肯表示:“相比其他年龄群体,更多年轻消费者预测房价会继续上涨。虽然年轻受访者对于自己未来的财务状况最为乐观,但他们本月对个人财务状况的乐观情绪却有所下降。”

与之前的调查相比,本次调查中有更多受访者认为明年房价会继续上涨。人们变得更担心就业稳定,尽管上周发布的1月份就业报告出人意料地强劲。对抵押贷款利率上浮的担忧,也是上个月受访者对房地产市场前景悲观的主要原因之一。

房地产市场的现状促成了当前的卖方市场。激烈的竞争、上涨的房价和待售房屋快速成交,意味着市场越来越有利于卖房人,而不是购房者。随着新房需求增长速度超过供应,潜在购房人可能更倾向于选择观望,等待市场发生变化。(188金宝搏 下载)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

通常情况下,房地产市场要么是买方市场,要么是卖方市场。但自从2020年年中房地产行业重启以来,它已经完全变成了卖方市场。

越来越多潜在购房人认为市场已经无药可救,现在根本不值得出手。

美国联邦政府投资的住宅抵押贷款公司房利美(Fannie Mae)最新调查发现,只有25%的购房人认为现在是购房的好时机,69%的受访者相信现在是卖房的好机会。

作为一项月度和季度研究的一部分,该项调查在1月三周内电话采访了约1,000人。调查发现,购房者的乐观情绪处在自2020年5月以来的最低水平,但当时美国还没有取消封锁措施,没有人知道市场的发展方向。

现在,美国房地产市场对于购房者而言就是一场噩梦。新房需求创历史新高,但新房库存量却是历史最低水平。出售新房的时间,比一年前缩短了近10天。

这些令人讨厌的状况导致房地产市场出现了许多离奇的现象,例如三分之二购房人没有看房就直接出手,或者四分之一潜在购房人为了购买自己梦寐以求的住房愿意超支10万美元。

年轻人对于房地产市场供应紧张的感受最为明显。中等收入者可负担的住房供应紧张和激烈的竞争,对年轻人造成了严重影响。如今的房地产市场几乎没有经济实惠的选择,因此现在成为购房主力的千禧一代开始严重超支。

房利美调查发现,年轻受访者认为现在不宜买房的比例比一般受访者高约40%,只有15%年龄在18至34岁的受访者认为现在是买房的好时机。

房利美高级副总裁兼首席经济学家道格·邓肯表示:“相比其他年龄群体,更多年轻消费者预测房价会继续上涨。虽然年轻受访者对于自己未来的财务状况最为乐观,但他们本月对个人财务状况的乐观情绪却有所下降。”

与之前的调查相比,本次调查中有更多受访者认为明年房价会继续上涨。人们变得更担心就业稳定,尽管上周发布的1月份就业报告出人意料地强劲。对抵押贷款利率上浮的担忧,也是上个月受访者对房地产市场前景悲观的主要原因之一。

房地产市场的现状促成了当前的卖方市场。激烈的竞争、上涨的房价和待售房屋快速成交,意味着市场越来越有利于卖房人,而不是购房者。随着新房需求增长速度超过供应,潜在购房人可能更倾向于选择观望,等待市场发生变化。(188金宝搏 下载)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

In real estate, it’s generally either a buyer’s or a seller’s market. Since the industry reopened in mid-2020, it has morphed into the mother of all seller’s markets.

And aspiring homebuyers increasingly think the jig is up and it’s not even worth trying.

A new poll by Fannie Mae, the federally backed home mortgage company, finds that only 25% of homebuyers think it is a good time to buy a home, while 69% are convinced it’s a good time to sell.

The poll, part of a monthly and quarterly study that surveyed around 1,000 people via telephone interviews over a period of three weeks in January, found that home purchase optimism is the lowest it's been since May 2020, but that was before lockdown lifted and nobody knew which direction the market would go.

The U.S. housing market is a nightmare for buyers right now. Demand for new homes is at a record high, but the inventory of new homes available is at a record low. They’re getting snapped up fast, too, selling around 10 days faster than they were a year ago.

This nasty combination of circumstances has led to some pretty wild stories on the housing front, like the two-thirds of buyers who placed bids on homes they had never seen, or the one out of every four home seekers willing to go as high as $100,000 over budget on a dream home.

No one is feeling the crunch more than young people. A dearth of affordable housing for middle-income earners and crushing competition is hitting younger demographics hard. Millennials, who are now entering what is considered the prime homebuying age range, are getting mercilessly outspent on a market that has vanishingly few affordable options in the first place.

Fannie Mae’s poll indicates that younger people surveyed are about 40% more convinced than general survey audiences that now is a good time to stay away from homeownership, with only 15% of respondents ages 18 to 34 thinking it's a good time to buy.

“Younger consumers—more so than other groups—expect home prices to rise even further,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, adding that “while the younger respondents are typically the most optimistic about their future finances, this month their sense of optimism around their personal financial situation declined.”

Respondents to the poll were more convinced than in previous surveys that home prices will go up over the next year. People were also more concerned about job stability than in past results, despite last week’s surprisingly strong January jobs report. Fears over higher mortgage rates were also a big reason behind last month’s pessimistic outlook on the housing market.

The conditions of real estate today are all the ingredients needed for a perfect seller’s market cocktail. Rampant competition, rising prices, and quick turnover when homes are for sale mean that the market is leaning toward favoring sellers and not buyers. As long as the demand for new homes outpaces the supply of available ones, prospective homebuyers may be more inclined to wait this market out.

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